Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 111.049738 126.980134 144.889241 166.610179 192.368749 222.096398 259.226364
2026-01-18 90.379080 110.730856 135.618088 168.637862 211.819507 267.103600 344.436506
2026-01-25 76.892272 99.015072 127.782318 168.609698 226.185812 306.234649 429.148775
2026-02-01 66.326258 88.733332 119.290977 165.032186 233.592671 335.645719 505.296380
2026-02-08 58.283221 80.452025 111.897978 161.123213 238.854450 361.658555 580.834208
2026-02-15 52.041803 73.783115 105.684448 157.610702 243.483186 386.635730 659.429027
2026-02-22 49.951200 72.847638 107.675390 166.801611 269.650424 451.675880 825.443919
2026-03-01 46.552366 69.476755 105.395560 168.550980 283.206759 496.852501 965.369090
2026-03-08 43.723464 66.660727 103.602003 170.730110 297.655944 546.233061 1127.911902
2026-03-15 40.819697 63.410058 100.687258 170.445859 307.278851 587.764330 1285.195000
2026-03-22 39.815204 63.175182 102.803177 179.510310 336.546461 676.285532 1585.366612
2026-03-29 38.617607 62.475125 103.989750 186.913970 363.653424 766.281498 1923.956814
2026-04-05 37.131339 61.208103 104.153044 192.622598 388.884066 859.931158 2318.906722
2026-04-12 35.325033 59.209318 102.762028 195.014847 407.283271 941.983842 2719.148181
2026-04-19 33.398897 56.817774 100.373314 194.976441 420.024444 1012.840294 3119.031467
2026-04-26 31.183478 53.703728 96.279875 190.716468 421.773415 1054.136921 3435.379827
2026-05-03 29.140530 50.754569 92.239724 186.066516 421.754331 1090.575719 3754.423731
2026-05-10 27.339179 48.129234 88.610877 181.891754 422.237195 1128.805535 4104.259786
2026-05-17 27.147339 48.605041 91.349564 192.822223 465.211691 1313.650262 5236.193159
2026-05-24 26.139437 47.385876 90.428823 194.905172 484.161344 1425.947609 6111.892479
2026-05-31 25.246818 46.328925 89.753077 197.500919 505.184311 1553.012560 7179.855142
2026-06-07 24.179223 44.836782 87.998971 197.162255 517.442414 1652.520642 8184.811228
2026-06-14 24.029935 45.229568 90.439145 207.971746 566.670491 1915.047907 10535.365395